The services provided by the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) were interrupted for almost the entire day yesterday, May 29th. This was a major headache for the hundreds of thousands of people who travel on the TTC each day, mostly to work and to school. The city's residents awoke on Monday morning to news that the TTC was not running. Most scrambled to find alternate means to get to work or school, relying on car pooling, bicycles, or walking. Let's examine what the collective cost to the city's residents was, versus the stakes that precipitated the interruption.
It's been reported that about 700,000 people ride the TTC each day (others, such as CTV.ca, report 800,000). For the purposes of this analysis, I'll assume that the lower number is correct and that the average productive time lost by a typical rider was about one hour. This may be conservative, however, since many people will have lost an entire day of work, while others--the brave--who ventured to where they were going by car were faced with snarled traffic as many others did the same. By car it took me an extra two hours of travel time yesterday. But let's assume that the average loss of productive time is one hour. That means that the total time lost was 700,000 hours. Again, to be conservative, let's assume that the average work year is about 2,000 hours. Given these conservative assumptions, that the TTC interruption cost the city of Toronto a total of 350 years of productive time.
Statistics Canada reports that the average annual earnings in Toronto in 2001 was $38,598. Obviously, earnings have increased on average over the last five years. Let's be conservative and assume that the increase has been modest, to $40,000. Let's assume that the losses can be entirely captured by taking into account the average value of time in terms of forgone earnings (this is probably conservative, too). Then, armed with this additional information, we can say that the cost to the city's residents of the illegal action by Amalgamated Transit Union Local 113 was at the very least $14,000,000. And don't forget that this was an illegal strike action.
So, conservatively, we can say that the strike cost at least 350 productive years or $14 million. Remember that there is no account taken of, for example, the additional pollution that was caused by having so many additional vehicles creeping along city streets yesterday. The estimates also don't take into account the health costs borne by everyone who ventured out by foot or on bicycle during the city's first smog alert of the year. They don't take into account the additional gasoline used yesterday by all the cars on the road, or the wear and tear on the vehicles themselves or on the roads. Moreover, not just transit riders were affected. People who ordinarily carpool into work also had to put up with longer commutes. And it ignores the costs to customers who, for example, had to wait in longer lines because not all staff were able to make it into work. In short, this analysis ignores many costs that are more difficult to quantify. The $14,000,000 figure is a rock bottom, bare minimum estimate of the cost of this illegal strike.
It remains unclear precisely what the stakes were over which this action was taken. The National Post reports that, "The walkout by 8,500 employees was prompted by a decision to move a handful of cleaning staff from the day shift to nights without the union's consent." CTV.ca says, "Maintenance workers angered by a shift change that forces them to work overnight sparked the dispute." The CBC has reported that, "The wildcat strike was ostensibly about a transfer of 22 cleaning staff from day to night shifts, a move the TTC says makes sense from an operational and budgetary standpoint."
Two things are crystal clear. First, the costs faced by the 22 union members who were being moved to the night shift are far outweighed by the costs borne by the residents of Toronto. Second, the action was illegal. The natural question to ask at this point is, what should be done to deter socially wasteful action like this in the future? There are a number of options. As this was an illegal strike, it is unlikely that passing legislation would be helpful. Perhaps the most attractive option would be to follow the lead of New York City and impose heavy fines on one or more of (a) the union; (b) its leaders; and (c) the employees themselves.
Comments are welcome.